Tom Kawczynski - Off the Record

While everyone has been understandably focused on the upcoming health bill, that at this time is scheduled to be voted upon on Sunday, I've seen lots of interesting arguments made.  I have a pretty fair understanding of those who support it and those who oppose it, but I haven't read many political analyses of the consequences for the Congressmen voting on the bill.

For Republicans, it is a very simple calculation to vote "no" in accordance with the desire to stand opposed to the President, the congressional majority, and in agreement with the wishes of most party members, the strongest conservative movements, tea party independents, and others.

For Democrats, from a purely political perspective, I think it makes more sense to pass the bill.  For better or worse, they've chosen this as the ground where they are going to fight and 2010 will be a referendum on the health care legislation.  It has become immaterial whether the bill passes or not that this will be the issue (failing some unforeseen complication like a major terrorist attack) of voting preference.  If the bill is not passed, the conservative base will be energized, and the liberal and progressive constituencies that back most Democrats will be demoralized.  Conversely, if the bill passes, the majority of Democrats will at least have an issue on which they can mobilize their own network of support agencies.

If it passes, this will be a big part of the reason why.  Having decided health care is the issue, they cannot invest a year on the subject without some results.  An imperfect result still allows them to claim a major victory according to their rhetoric.  Every poll suggests that there will be a price to pay in November for this, but that is now true in any event.  With a passed bill, the Democrats' own troops will rally more, and it is easier to defend action than intention alone.

This is the logic of politics, which will satisfy no one wanting to discuss the bill on the merits.  I wish more people did just that, wish that Congress didn't grease up bills for passage, and I am glad to people are getting to see in detail, in this debate, how bills are made to pass.  But I also know what happens with too much wishful thinking.

I respect protests and the right to do so immensely, but I have noticed one thing.  If the people you protest against know you aren't voting for them, that you were actively opposing them from the beginning, and that you will soon be against them, it is hard to persuade them.  The money might be better spent on lawyers and campaigns than how it has been thus far.  Just my thoughts.